In , there is massive uncertainty with my strategy and all CFB betting. What might have been a great bet on Sunday or Monday might all of a sudden become a horrible wager on a Thursday if key players are rules out due to a positive test of contact tracing. I have no idea how I will do this year.
William Hill Sports Book is a reliable place to find odds. I am playing fewer games this season. To counteract that loss of volume, I will be doing more second-half wagering and live wagering. I post these in the comments and will track these in a separate record because I am interested in seeing the difference in return between pre- and in-game wagers.
I'll be answering any gambling related questions in the comment section throughout the week. Fire away. I'll discuss games each week in the comment section of Bud's Bets. My super annoying year continues. I beat the closing line consistently again and did not hit big winners.
That is ridiculously good beating the market and ridiculously bad at cashing tickets. I certainly wouldn't want a bad process, good result outcome, but this is quite annoying. In any previous year beating the market by that much will result in very profitable weekends over the long haul.
But this year it has just not been the case. Live continues to go well. UCLA at Oregon This is a quality team. Clemson FSU is really wrecked by injuries, opt-outs, and inexperience. I'd lay anything under I have won a good bit with Coastal this season, but will be getting on the more physical team here. Neither of these teams should be a double digit favorite given their offenses. Wisconsin -7 at Northwestern. I trust the Wisconsin defense to shut down the Wildcat offense.
Iowa is not great, but I do think it is about a touchdown better than a Penn State squad which might not care about playing very much. Oregon State showed me something with its run game on Saturday night in the first half. Kansas State at Iowa State I do not believe in this Kansas State offense at all. It has shown its true colors down the stretch. Virginia Tech -2 at Pitt. This will probably be square as heck, but if the Hokies do not quit on the season, this really should be over a field goal.
Oklahoma is ATS in those games, including five straight covers. The under is in those games. The last time the Wolfpack covered five straight on their home turf spanned the seasons. The Trojans find themselves in that spot for the second week in a row, as Utah has yet to play a game this season. Skip to navigation. College football Week 12 betting nuggets.
Kansas City Chiefs. Bucs equal bucks as U. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sportsbook offers refunds after Reed controversy. LeBron now MVP favorite at some sportsbooks. Los Angeles Lakers. It's flipping madness: 'Startling' amount bet on Super Bowl coin toss. A gamble on Brady's move to Tampa Bay leads to profits.
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But its passing defense has been exploitable. But Indiana, despite its explosive passing display last week, only holds a Passing Success Rate of Their offense has an overall Success Rate of Their line only generates 2. Against Penn State, it led by 15 at half, and against Rutgers, it led by Both of these covered the first-half spreads, but the Buckeyes ended up failing to cover the point spread against Rutgers, and it appeared they let their foot off of the gas.
The North Texas has what you want when betting an over on a team total: pace and explosiveness. North Texas is one of only nine teams to average at least 80 plays per game and currently ranks sixth in that department. The Mean Green also gain at least 20 yards on North Texas has been held under 30 points only once this season, and in that game, it still managed to generate 6.
It lost to a horrendous Middle Tennessee team but then blew out Southern Mississippi, Rice currently ranks 46th in Success Rate allowed on defense, but those numbers are probably inflated from playing two terrible offenses. I would look for the best price you can get at anything under The Knights lead the nation with I have confidence, however, that Cincy can dictate the tempo at the Bounce House on Saturday afternoon, just as it did at home in The Bearcats edged the Knights in the time of possession battle and ultimately forced UCF to play its game last season.
Desmond Ridder, in particular, has broken a handful of long runs stemming from the read option, a byproduct of missed assignments by the defense. UCF has shored up its defense in recent weeks, holding Houston and Temple to just 17 points and total yards per game. In the case of the San Diego State Aztecs, you get a defense that allows 3.
This number is the best in all of college football. On Saturday, they face a fraudulent Nevada team. The problem is that it has been tested against opponents with one combined win. Former defensive coordinator Zach Arnett took the defense to Mississippi State and despite offensive ineptitude, the Bulldogs are having a tremendous year on that side of the ball. Did I mention the nine returning Aztec starters? There was a lot of uncertainty about how Wisconsin would perform last week after battling a COVID outbreak for the previous two weeks.
The Badgers lost both their head coach and starting quarterback to quarantine protocols. Well, Wisconsin went into Ann Arbor and completely bullied Michigan for four quarters for a blowout victory. The big question coming into this season was what the Wisconsin run game would look like without Jonathan Taylor. The Badgers ran for yards, 6.
Wisconsin deployed a running back by committee approach, as four different players accumulated at least 65 yards on the ground. Graham Mertz returned from COVID protocol, and while he looked a bit rusty, he still threw two touchdowns and no interceptions and now will have a full week of practice to get back into rhythm. While Northwestern has a terrific defense, the best offense they have played is probably Nebraska, so the Badgers will present its toughest task.
It ranks No. Is that good? With a low game total, this game will be decided in the trenches like old school Big Ten football, and that is where Wisconsin has a big advantage. The Northwestern offensive line has been pushed around this season, ranking 84th in Havoc allowed, th in Stuff Rate and th in Line Yards. Wisconsin should win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. In what will likely be a low-scoring game, finding the best number is key, so try and find a -7 if you can, but I would take this up to The Hokies have been able to get what they want on the ground all season and boast the eighth-best rushing offense in college football.
Behind the dynamic duo of Hendon Hooker and Khalil Herbert, the Hokies are averaging an impressive 6. Pittsburgh is allowing just The top rushing team the Panthers have faced to date was Notre Dame, and they limited the Irish to only yards on the ground and 2. The Panthers will be able to slow down the Hokies on the ground and put pressure on Hooker to make plays through the air. Pickett has since gotten healthy and returned to the lineup, and it gave the Panthers a big post in their win at Florida State.
The Panthers play at a deliberate pace and will look to control the tempo and keep the Virginia Tech offense off the field as much as possible. The total of 55 looks too high with a pair of run-heavy offenses squaring off. Pittsburgh in particular will look to take their time and keep the clock moving when they are on the field, and should have some success in doing so with Pickett playing.
The Panthers have all the tools to make it a frustrating afternoon for Virginia Tech and can pull off the upset at home in a low-scoring affair. ET on Saturday. The two Big 12 teams have met annually since The Kansas State offense has been focused around true freshman Will Howard after he stepped in for injured quarterback Skylar Thompson.
The Wildcats are currently ranked 80th in FBS passing offense. They average yards per game through the air. They have thrown for nine touchdowns this season and are averaging The Wildcat offense has an offensive passing play PPA of 0. The Wildcat defense holds a defensive PPA per play of 0. The Cyclones have been averaging The balanced Cyclone offense has an offensive PPA per play of 0.
The Cyclone defense has a defensive PPA per play of 0. The Wildcats will look to come into this game with a pass-focused offense against a Cyclone defense that has had trouble defending the pass at times this season. The Cyclones will continue with their run-first identity to create passing opportunities. Early running success against the Wildcats should create ample downfield opportunities for Purdy as the game progresses.
Both teams come into the matchup with average defenses and the ability to score. The weather forecast is showing above freezing temps, no rain and winds below 10 mph. My model has the total for this game at 56 points, which is 9. Take the over, as both teams should find success passing the ball in Farmageddon. Play this to 48 points. Oklahoma State comes into Bedlam sporting a record with a top national ranking. The Pokes are averaging only 5. In four of their five wins, they scored 20, 24, 16 and Pick: Clemson The Gators are coming off yet another offensive explosion, this one against an Arkansas team that had been pretty feisty so far this season.
Vanderbilt is playing better of late, but it will not matter this week. Pick: Florida Each of these teams has big weapons on the offensive side of the ball and sport below average defenses. I'll be surprised if either team is held below 30, and not at all surprised if at least one of them gets to And that is assuming Rondale Moore is still out for Purdue. Pick: Over It has been a terrific year for the Sun Belt, in no small part due to a few big nonconference wins against the Big Coastal Carolina has one of those but also the least in a season-opening win at Kansas.
The Chanticleers are ranked for the first time ever, and deservedly so. However, this has been the Mountaineers league for the last four years, and this is the kind of game they have been winning over that time. They know how to do it, and I'll take them to do it again. Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 12?
By Jerry Palm. Nov 18, at pm ET 2 min read. Getty Images. Week 12 Picks No.
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If you want to use the model, follow the experts, or scan the data to make your own picks, BetQL has it all. Recommended bets that also have performed well historically. The list updates in real time. To meet the criteria, an upcoming game must display:.
Popular events based on current user activity. The list updates in real time, with recent activity more heavily weighted. Which team is the best bet to win next season's College Football Championship? Sharp Picks. All Conferences. Week 1. Modify Stats. William Hill. Cantor Gaming. Rotation Number. Open - Spread. Live - ML.
Open - ML. Line Move - Spread. Line Move - ML. Best Bet Rating. Total of Public Tickets - Spread. Total of Public Tickets - Moneyline. Total of Public Tickets - Over. Total of Public Tickets - Under. Total Games. Current Year Net Units. ATS Record. ATS Units. Over Record O - U - P. Under Record U - O - P. Cancel Add Settings. College Football Picks Here you will find our college football picks for this weekend and we will break down a few of our favorite games.
College Football Picks Against the Spread If you are betting on college football you are most likely betting against the spread, and BetQL is here to make you more profitable. You may also see plenty of big runs against an NC State defense that ranks 61st in Rush Explosiveness. Willis averages 4. He also boasts the highest Elusiveness Rating for any rusher with at least 35 attempts, per Pro Football Focus. That spells trouble for a Wolfpack defense that has struggled with missed tackles all season.
The Wolfpack sit at th in Finishing Drives on defense. Willis and company should have no issues moving the ball on the ground, hitting explosive plays and finishing drives off with touchdowns against a very poor NC State defense. Combine all of that with the fact that the Flames rank 26th in Passing Success, which can neutralize the one real strength of this NC State offense, and you get a very live dog here. Hugh Freeze has a very good chance of improving to on the season, including a perfect record against the ACC.
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